By Gwynne Dyer,
When Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the highest-ranking American officer, was asked recently on NBC’s Meet The Press whether the United States has a military plan for an attack on Iran, he replied simply: “We do.”
General staffs are supposed to plan for even the most unlikely future contingencies. Right down to the 1930s, for example, the United States maintained and annually updated plans for the invasion of Canada—and the Canadian military made plans to preempt the invasion. But what the planning process will have revealed, in this case, is that there is no way for the United States to win a non-nuclear war with Iran.
The U.S. could “win” by dropping hundreds of nuclear weapons on Iran’s military bases, nuclear facilities and industrial centres (i.e. cities) and killing five to 10 million people, but short of that, nothing works. On this we have the word of Richard Clarke, counter-terrorism adviser in the White House under three administrations.
In the early 1990s, Clarke revealed in an interview with the New York Times four years ago, the Clinton administration had seriously considered a bombing campaign against Iran, but the military professionals told them not to do it.
“After a long debate, the highest levels of the military could not forecast a way in which things would end favourably for the United States,” he said. The Pentagon’s planners have war-gamed an attack on Iran several times in the past 15 years, and they just can’t make it come out as a U.S. victory.
It’s not the fear of Iranian nuclear weapons that makes the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff so reluctant to get involved in a war with Iran. Those weapons don’t exist, and the whole justification for the war would be to make sure that they never do.
The problem is that there’s nothing the U.S. can do to Iran, short of nuking the place, that would really force Tehran to kneel and beg for mercy. It can bomb Iran’s nuclear sites and military installations to its heart’s content, but everything it destroys can be rebuilt in a few years. And there is no way that the United States could actually invade Iran.
There are some 80 million people in Iran, and although many of them don’t like the present regime they are almost all fervent patriots who would resist a foreign invasion. Iran is a mountainous country, and very big: four times the size of Iraq. The Iranian army currently numbers about 450,000 men, slightly smaller than the U.S. Army—but unlike the U.S. Army, it does not have its troops scattered across literally dozens of countries.
If the White House were to propose anything larger than minor military incursions along Iran’s south coast, senior American generals would resign in protest. Without the option of a land war, the only lever the United States would have on Iranian policy is the threat of yet more bombs—but if they aren’t nuclear, then they aren’t very persuasive. Whereas Iran would have lots of options for bringing pressure on the United States.
Just stopping Iran’s own oil exports would drive the oil price sky-high in a tight market: Iran accounts for around seven percent of internationally traded oil. But it could also block another 40 percent of global oil exports just by sinking tankers coming from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the other Arab Gulf states with its lethal Noor anti-ship missiles.
The Noor anti-ship missile is a locally built version of the Chinese YJ-82. It has a 200-km range, enough to cover all the major choke points in the Gulf. It flies at twice the speed of sound just metres above the sea’s surface, and it has a tiny radar profile. Its single-shot kill probability has been put as high as 98 percent.
Iran’s mountainous coastline extends along the whole northern side of the Gulf, and these missiles have easily concealed mobile launchers. They would sink tankers with ease, and in a few days insurance rates for tankers planning to enter the Gulf would become prohibitive, effectively shutting down the region’s oil exports completely.
Meanwhile Iran would start supplying modern surface-to-air missiles to the Taliban in Afghanistan, and that would soon shut down the U.S. military effort there. (It was the arrival of U.S.-supplied Stinger missiles in Afghanistan in the late 1980s that drove Russian helicopters from the sky and ultimately doomed the whole Soviet intervention there.)
Iranian ballistic missiles would strike U.S. bases on the southern (Arab) side of the Gulf, and Iran’s Hezbollah allies in Beirut would start dropping missiles on Israel. The United States would have no options for escalation other than the nuclear one, and pressure on it to stop the war would mount by the day as the world’s industries and transport ground to a halt.
The end would be an embarrassing retreat by the United States, and the definitive establishment of Iran as the dominant power of the Gulf region. That was the outcome of every wargame the Pentagon played, and Mike Mullen knows it. So there is a plan for an attack on Iran, but he would probably rather resign than put it into action. It is all bluff. It always was.
The second edition of Gwynne Dyer’s latest book, Climate Wars, was published recently in Canada by Random House.
Most of the people commenting here are doubtless the typical “armchair generals” that the pervade the internet. Before you go attacking Gwynn Dyer for his strategic knowledge, you should take a moment to read his resume. This is an eminent military historian we’re talking about, not some crackpot typing from his parents’ couch.
Despite all the rhetoric and nationalism we see in the US, the truth is that Iran is not Iraq, nor is it Afghanistan, nor is it Vietnam (all of which caused serious problems for the US military). Iran is armed to the teeth with precision missiles. It doesn’t have to win tactical victories to win the war. I think Gwynn’s thesis is correct.
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The US cant win a war and never did win a war, with or without nucs. The most ridiculess army in the world over provided in technologies and weapons and if there is a situation they sell of having won a war than it was in relation 1000 US soldiers against 1 poor vietnamese, cambodian, iraqui…. check it out and laugh about this “heroes”. Nor did they win the 2nd WW, came far to late and have been not only a oversized assistance to its allieds but heroe slaughters of close to 1 million german soldiers in military camps busy silenced with all sorts of lies. They are good in this and in selling false hollywood images of gym pumped muscles without resistance of carrying a gallon of water 20 miles each day like a poor nigerian woman. Hard shaped look of republican weapon lovers and ready to kill robots, crying like a fire in sun by “defending our country” of the self invented anti christ. Thanks to god there are also normal and good people living in the US but this, the world doesnt know anymore. Contrary to world opinion these US military show is NOT the USA and never have been but robots to the weapon industries and its background players of no nationality.
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Last time I looked Iran was flanked by Iraq and Afghanistan.
Not a good place to be in a conflict and surrounded by US forces.
Ever hear of a scramjet? Stealth? UAV’s? Submarines?
US has no beef with Iranians, just crazy mullahs running their country into the ground and enslaving their citizens.
If it were “go time” it would be over in hours before any third rate, junk Chinese, or Russian missile got off a shot.
Not to say it wouldn’t be ugly, but if pushed hard enough it’s bound to happen.
Probably safe for 2 years until Obama is shown out the door and then be very concerned.
Dirka Dirka – Mohammad Jihad
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Exactly. Why even compare the size of our armies? The kill ratio would be incomprable and you didnt take into account the fact that the USAF/Navy have the most technically advanced weapons in the world. Being the most powerful country in the middle east is like being the skinniest kid at Fat Camp. No one cares about your Shahab-3, its hilarious that is the cornerstone of your argument…very descriptive picture though! Cant wait to get off work hop in my 30,000 dollar sportscar drive home to my hot blonde california wife and drink beer by the pool. These websites are hilarious, you are all paper tigers…
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This is all Bullshit as there will NEVER be a nu-clear attempt….by any nation….they have already been neutralized.
You do nothing but Fear mongering. So keep all this crap to yours-self….dont dump it on the people
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[...] No Way Can US Win A Non-Nuclear War With Iran People who read this article also read: [...]
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Well it was nice to read the few different remarks from people all around and let me add a few of my own.History tells us that wars have been fabricated The US administration went into WW 2 agaisnt the wishes of the people it let pearl harbour happen dont believe me see the opinion polls before and after pearl harbour for american people to go to war,the first and second atomic bombs was dropped on the hapless japan just so the mistake of the europeian invasion where on one side Europe was liberated by the Allies and on the other side by the soviets hence east and west germany .The bombs were dropped just two days prior to a similar invision was to start in the south east asia.The Viatnam war was again started on a similar lie and i remember one note of a helicopter pilot which he wrote before being bombed out of the sky was ” i still search for a reson for me to be fighting this war i have searched for it and finally found it if i could i would have probaly gone home.9/11 was another farce where the US administration killed two birds with one stone , on one side they passed the HS act and made the citizens slaves and on the other hand got to invade afgasnistan to safegaurd their oil and gas pipe line coming out of the CAS states through Afghanistan to Pakistan onto Gawader the only other deep sea port in the region the other being bandar abbas (in iran)and then there were the Weapons of mass destructions what a laughing stock was made of the world community when Bush and his croonies invaded Iraq,destroyed its infrstructure and then gave contracts to US builders to make them again,Do you know why with so much sophisticated look down capabilities by the USA is there poppy still being cultivated in Afghanistan ? over 3 Trillion Us dollars worth of herion is being smuggled to all over the world under the auspicious of CIA to finance their global covert wars,why does America want to thurst their way of life on all the world ? The USA champion of democracy has its eyes closed on the kingdoms and sheikhdoms in the middle east where there is no democracy but whose rulers toot the US line.Isreal is a neculear state why is the US quiet on it has its eyes closed to it vetos every motion against it? because the Administration is run by the powerfull and rich Jews who finance it even the US Fedral reserve is a private entity.The USA is not only after iran on account of its neculear policy but Iran has plans to build and make operational an OIL trading exchange to do trading in Euro The EU is ok with it the Russians are ok with it the Chinese are ok with it thats when the downfall of the mighty US empire will begin as the have printed trillions of currency notes in excess of their gold reserves as every country in the world needs Dollars to buy oil. When the currency is changed those notes will be as worthy as toilet paper bringing the US might to its knees.The Iranians are a proud nation and there are no shias to fight against sunnis in Iran nor greedy warlords to be bought by a briefcase full of dollars since the days of Shah of Iran the US has tried every trick in its book to bring Irna on its knees but has failed to do so the New generation might not like the radical Mullahs but they dont like the Ynakee Doodles also
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[...] original source for this article, (Pakalert Press), seems to be offline, (or blocked in Australia?), so I take the liberty to [...]
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[...] http://www.pakalertpress.com/2010/08…war-with-iran/ __________________ "If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice." [...]
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USA is on the verge of bankrupcy. American people are fed up with the pull shit going on at home. High number of jobless people, forclosures, look up the number of people who need food bonds. USA economy is falling apart. Contrary to what Media says. WE ALL CANT WAIT. Europe, Canada, Asia, Middle east are fed up with USA bullying the world. USA has so many friends only because they have no choice, but to co exist.
USA airforce is not so good as many think. I know lots about it. Its how I make a living. f22 raptor and f35 are the best airplanes they have. F16 and f18 are old crap. I know cuz I fly them. They would be useless in Iran. They are over 30 years old. Even if USA has top secret weapon, highly advanced aircraft that could strike in Iran, they would not have enough. Also many underestimate the Iranien air defense. Iran Defesne is based on Russian Technology. Russians are masters at rocket technology. No USA airplane could penetrate Iranien airspace with out a high risk of being shot down. There would be a high rate of downed aircraft. F22 or f35 are not invisiable to radar. Good Radar operator can spot a f22 with out issues.
Pilots are trained to fly in patterns that fool radar operators. Its not all based on the airplane but flying skills. A smart, well trained radar operator specially with prvious experience or good training can spot any USA airforce airplane. The issue is USA Army is very young. Its the video game age. Many battle hardened troops retired.
Iran has a very god airforce. Mig 29 NG, are the best air to air defense, short range, but thats all they need. Su-30 and su31 are long range, mirrage is very small hard to shot down, and if they get Su-37′s, that will put a hole new ball game into place. Russians and China are as powerful as USA or will be soon.
65% of USA navy is in the pacific Ocean. The new Anti Ship missile that China has made is getting the USA Navy worried. China vs Tawian backed USA might be around the corner anytime. China has the power to scare away any USA navy ship to a range of 2200 km.
Russia went into Gorgia, USA did nothing? Why Gorgia was USA backed.
The true evil is USA. I hae no fucking clue why I joined the army. wasting my life fighting for a lost couse, and frankly the evil side.
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Mike, I admire your courage and sincereness.
I wish you all the best.
Cheers!
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Mike, if you are in the army like you say than you never flew any fighter jets. You also would never say “USA air force” etc. You are an idiot, thanks for the hilarious post. The fact that someone else beleived you makes this entire website laffable. Waste of any American’s time. Later
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US cant win a war with Iran? Haha! I remember back in ’90 people like you saying Iraq’s 1 million man army was invincible, that they were battle hardened from the Iran-Iraq war and that America’s casualties would run into the tens of thousands.
A war with Iran would turn out the same way. Israel strikes their nuclear facilities, Iran fires missiles at Israel and our boys in Afghan/Iraq. But Ahmunutjob forgot that this would lead to the most intense aerial bombardment ever known to man. Every military jet from our air force and 11 carriers off their southern coast would bomb their industry, military, and infrastructure into submission. Leading to one thing, revolution.
God bless America
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Dylan? Are you retarded?
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In the event of any attack the Iranians easily have the military ability to close the Straits of Hormuz a few weeks of this and there is a major economic collapse in several major economies. The US also left 50,000 US troops in Shia dominated Iraq with a thin supply line to Kuwait.. Thats 50,000 hostages caught like rats in a trap. Any war plan I have seen has “wishful thinking” written all over it. No war plan survives first contact with the enemy and never has throughout history. If only a few things go wrong for the US attack the whole scheme is toast. The worst effect won’t be the losses militarily, they will be the reputation and standing of the US going down the drain. The entire world will witness the failure of the US to project force at will and that’s the end of the Dollar and US hegemony.
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[...] Gwynne Dyer/Pakalert Press [...]
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[...] the original post: No Way Can US Win A Non-Nuclear War With Iran | Pakalert Press Post a [...]
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I hope to [insert deity of choice] that the US does NOT go to war with Iran. not because of this article, although it does add to the pile, but because an all out war and two “liberations” in three neighboring countries just sounds like a global version of the saying about a monkey trying to hump a football with the US playing the role of the monkey…
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[...] No Way Can US Win A Non-Nuclear War With Iran | Pakalert Press [...]
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I just would like to remind the readers. What happenned to USA aeroplanes in Tabas in 1980?! they were destroyed by power of Allah/God almighty while Irainian were sleep. Iran had no army then, not even one single shut by a rifle. Don’t you believe in the power of Allah/God. Don’t you believe in miracles,we shall see what will happen to US army if they attack Iran.
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It is considered taboo to state the obvious in regards to the current crop of US Troops. Sadly, the US Soldiers of today were not cut from the same cloth as those that served in World War 2. Many US Troops are unable to even defend themselves against the poorly equipped Iraq resistance. With time the Iraq war will be seen as even worse than Vietnam. Iran will have no problem humiliating the United States if we foolishly attack.-Christian
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The statement, “short of a nuclear war, the U.S. can not prevail in a military conflict with Iran”, is nonsense. Any military conflict with Iran would play out similarly to the first Iraq conflict, with antiquated Iranian military assets destroyed “at will”. The entire military and civilian infrastructure currently in place in Iran could be reduced to rubble without committing any ground assets within a matter of weeks. Iran has no ability to stop any incursion into it’s airspace by U.S air strikes, naval assets could launch without reprisal, and every dam, bridge, hospital, power station, and military base could be destroyed rather easily. Iran is water poor, has almost no farmland, and with limited access to the sea, could be isolated without access to vital imports necessary for a protracted siege. It is the PEACE, the “what after” that would stump the U.S. Similarly to Afganistan and Iraq, there is no conceivable way that a foreign invading power could OCCUPY any territory within Iran successfully “long-term” without at least some local support.
There is a big difference between the power to destroy a nation, and occupy one. The U.S. could effectively bomb Iran back into the 19th century, but what would that acheive in the race to control the dwindling supply of the the world’s oil? The U.S. has identified assets that it desires, and similarly to Afganistan, (where one and a half billion barrels of oil were recently discovered), and Iraq, where the Saddam regime consistently resisted U.S. control, the U.S will attempt to manufacture a “Just and righteous war” against the ruling theocracy in Iran. The U.S. will attempt to sell the world and some of the local opposition of the existing power base that this war is one of liberation; same play-book, different oil fields. The question is what will the Chinese and Russians do once the U.S. commits to taking these assets, to date they have not attempted to thwart the U.S. in it’s military strategy in either Afganistan or Iraq.
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America bombed Iraq’s infrastructure for over a decade before invading them. We decimated their armed forces in the first Gulf War, then sat back and bombed them regularly until 2003 and the invasion. I know this because I participated in it. Just about every single major utility target was bombed or subverted in Iraq: water treatment plants, hospitals, sewer plants, garbage depots, pharmaceutical plants, refineries. You name it – we bombed it. This went on during Clinton’s reign as President. And all during this campaign were horrible, scathing sanctions that further weakened Iraq and the will of the Iraqi people. The Iraqi people talked every day about the coming invasion of the Americans. They knew we were coming. We laid siege to their nation, just like the castle sieges of old. We brutalized them, then we invaded. It was planned out from the beginning. Again, I know this because I was involved in it. I watched it happened everyday for 8 years. Hell, the bombing of Iraq during Clinton’s administration was on the news ALL THE FREAKING TIME! The news merely mentioned “targets” that were bombed. I happened to know intimately what those “targets” were. It was infrastructure. Then, just prior to the invasion, America again bombed the living shit out of Iraq’s utilities, their electric and gas plants, etc.
Ask the troops about their Iraq tour. Ask them about the trash and garbage in the streets, the open sewers, the lack of electricity. My own baby brother hated the Iraqis because “they were dirty and they stank.” I could never convince him that it was due to the horrible conditions placed upon them by the American people, the previous decade of bombing and sanctions. He only served one tour and now he’s on disability (PTSD). Poor, poor baby.
Iran is not Iraq. Iraq was an ally of America right up to the day they invaded Kuwait. America knew Iraq intimately, had troops stationed there. My cousin was in Baghdad right up to the day of “Shock and Awe” in 2003. How is that you ask? He was stationed there! Yes, I’m saying we had troops stationed in Iraq prior to and during the invasion of Iraq in 2003. My cousin was and is ARMY Ranger. He’s been in the Middle East since just after the Bosnian conflict. He’s still there.
So, I say, if you want war with Iran – get your pansy ass over there and get to killing. Don’t be a coward and hide behind someone else. If you wish war, then send someone to fight in your stead, I call you coward. You sit in your air conditioned homes while others do your killing for you, then you burn in Hell. You send men to kill innocent human beings in your name: you burn in Hell. I’ll see you there.
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[...] Re: Iranian General Issues Final Warning: Attack Us and Hormuz is Closed, Iraq/Afgh Up in Flames, and Israel Burns! No Way Can US Win A Non-Nuclear War With Iran No Way Can US Win A Non-Nuclear War With Iran | Pakalert Press [...]
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What people have not considered is that the foundation of the global system is crumbling everywhere. There is no sound spot in any of it. They have all put their eggs, or should I say their economies into the one and same global basket. One goes they all go. No nation can exist in isolation those that try always capitulate to the “International Community.” Otherwise sanctions can bring that nation to its knees. America is the global bully for enforcing this agenda on all nations, they are like a well armed villain pillaging and raping a world to feed its corporate greed, when it is riddled with cancer. It is disintergrating from within, rotten to the core, putting forth an image of might and power, knowing it has not long to live, going on a global spending spree with money it does not have. Throwing all caution to the wind, it is now coming to its grand finale, and is about to go out in a nuclear blaze and take most of the world with it. ALL the world powers of the past have the same thing in common, they ALL left RUINS in their wake.
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Thank you for this piece. Most media describes Iran as a poor people in robes, living in dirt huts, with no more technology than plain electricity. The reality is that Iran is much more modern than that, and unlike the US, has a large manufacturing base. That’s one reason that the sanctions have little effect. They have the capacity to manufacture their own goods, instead of importing them.
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Man I haven’t had this good of belly laugh in ages. Iran Builds (and photoshops) it’s military with tite bond glue. There is not a country on earth that can stand against the U.S.. If they think that the Iraq war was an all out war for us they are deathly mistaken. If the U.S. goes to war again in the Middle East against Iran it will be an all out war on all fronts against Radical Islam. The West is sick of you. The Ummah will be destroyed. Turkey, Yemen, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza will suffer more than they have ever suffered. Hamas, Hizzbollah, IRGC will be totally decimated. They will hang the Mullahs and Ahmadinejad in the streets of Teheran with Green ropes instead of Blue. 80% of the population in Iran hate the Mullahs and their Fascist government. Most were born after the 79 Revolution and want nothing to do with the Twelvers and the planned destruction of Iran in order to bring back the Mahdi. I only wish I could see the looks on their faces in their final moments.
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Man are you delusional!
We are not as mighty as the mainstream propaganda machines would have you believe. Yes, it’s true that we can bomb most countries into the stone age but that isn’t real power, only the rage of a small child. Radical Islam isn’t even a real threat to the western world. The September 11th attacks were a farce and there is no real threat to the united States unless we consider Chinese and Russian interests. Our troops are spread thinly across the world and we cannot afford (in more ways then one) to put boots on the ground in Iran, which is the only real way to “win” such a war. And Persians are not Arabs, they are an educated and modern people.
The truth is we have no business being in the middle east. We definitely have no legitimate reason for attacking Iran and the fabricated story of 911 was the flash point used to deceive the American people and begin the rush to war. You need to grow up and deal with your unrighteous hate towards these people. They haven’t done anything to you, if you’re threatened by them then that is an insecurity that you’ve created in your own mind. What Muslim people do in their own country is their own business, regardless if we in the west do not like it. We’ve done enough (Think CIA) to destabilize the world through our covert wars and assassinations that we’re fortunate we haven’t been invaded.
The wars need to end and America needs to rebuild. Homeland security is nothing more then a modern day Gestapo. Tyranny has turned its head inward, towards the American people. Our country is becoming a police state and our rights are being destroyed while foolish people like yourself have no real idea what is going on around you.
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It is obvious that you know nothing about the Middle East and Islam. Nothing! Because if you did you would understand every dynamic at play here. Your touchy feely dream of “If we leave them alone they won’t bother us” is more delusional than I could ever be. In the 21st Century you can’t sit on one side of the world and not be influenced or even changed by the other side of the world. You also show a basic ignorance of standard history. Got one of those touch feely Socialist educations did you? Where you learned America is bad and to hell with grades, they will pass me anyway? Wake up the world wide threat of Islam is very very real.
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The US military has war contingency plans for virtually every country in the world, including the US itself. This is no secret. What is unknown to most citizens is that without financing, there can be no war. Certainly nothing on the scale of the extended adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan. In the final analysis, Rome did not fail due to lack of military technology, strategy, or skill of its soldiers, but due to bankruptcy. Our American Empire will continue to occupy 700 bases in over 100 nations until there is no one left to loan us the required billions to continue.
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While it would be nice to think the threat of war is all bluff, this article is hardly factual, anyone who has been keeping score in the advancement of military weaponary over the last decade knows the US has many, I repeat many viable alternatives to nuclear weapons. This is why the US is happy to drastically cut their nuclear assets along with Russia & got Obama a Nobel prize (go figure).
Anyway I wish you all well but don’t put too much faith in the facts of this article.
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Huh? Care to name these alternatives to nuclear bombs? Waiting…
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Fuel air bombs? Cruise missiles? Strategic bombers?
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It devastates me that people are this undeducated/uninformed. Even the most powerful European allies of the US pale in comparison to America’s military. The EU could probably destroy Iran without much difficulty…on its own. Cruise missiles and strategic bombers are common weapons in the US military, and these people didnt even take them into account. Strategic bombers fly above any Iranian radar capabilities, not to mention the fact that our Patriot missiles can launch from within our own country and rain hell onto the Iranian armed forces, no nukes necessary. Ultimately, unless any of you are in politics, then you should all be out making money regardless of where you live. This paper tiger society is the most ridiculous thing I have ever come across on the internet. So weak. If you are American dont waste your time here, if you arent 1st you’re last.
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[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by PakAlertPress, GBN HQ. GBN HQ said: No Way Can US Win A Non-Nuclear War With Iran – The end would be an embarrassing retreat by the United States, and t… http://ow.ly/18DA7p [...]
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