Kiev attacks: War imminent in Ukraine

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Jim W. Dean

Ukraine has finally launched its so called “anti-terror” operation in the East. We have had our fingers crossed after the stand-down that seemed to be in effect over the Easter holiday, despite Turchinov’s immediate call for a crackdown on Eastern protestors as soon as the four-party talks agreement was signed.

Kiev attacks War imminent in Ukraine

That the West considered them a charade was further evidenced by Kerry so strangely stating that he would hold Russia responsible for making the protest movement fulfill the “de-escalation agreement.” But as often happens in these situations, parties “agree” to something and then interpret it however they want afterward.

In the present case, it seems that de-escalate means to reduce the East Ukraine protests by military force, and effect an occupation through the planned early elections. The US has already stated it would accept them as valid without knowing what the conditions were going to be.

While the US had seemed to be reigning in Kiev during the early part of the week, the independent Intel community was concerned that they were just using the time to carefully deploy and collect Intel on the main protestor strongholds. All US Intel assets, of course, have been at Kiev’s disposal for some time now, including those of the contractor forces already operating inside the major protest cities.

We learned this morning that we were right. During the night Ukrainian special forces retook the city hall in Mariupol, which was an easy place to get started. Interior Minister Arsen Avakov claims that it is now liberated without any casualties.

This confirms that no terrorists were there… no shooting, no IED’s planted along the expected routes, and no Russian Spetnaz teams to deal with armor, surround, cut off, and capture Ukrainian troops to put on display that they were forced to attack. The absence of all of this shows a new, evil kind of terrorism… the kind you can’t see, “stealth terrorism”, a much different version than the US’s full-display terror model being used in Syria.

Following the Mariupol operation, the main Kiev push seems to be focused on Slavyansk, with armor units beginning to attack checkpoints on the outskirts of the city, also easy targets as they cannot really be reinforced. The Ukrainian Interior Ministry describes the operations thus:

“During the anti-terrorist operation, three checkpoints erected by illegal military groups have been destroyed in the northeastern part of Slavyansk,”… “At least five terrorists have been killed. One policeman was injured.”

Following the easy takeover of Mariupol with no resistance, Kiev knew the checkpoints would be defended, and they would get the shooting incident needed to give them some cover for dealing with terrorists. The checkpoint guards only had their expected small arms. Real terrorists would certainly have mined the road approaches after all of this time and had some anti-armor capability. We have not seen a single RPG in any photograph.

If the secret invisible Russian army was really in East Ukraine, would it have prepared these checkpoints to defend themselves? From the photos coming in, we see that the Ukraine Army’s equipment is more modern than what the new recruits were thrown in with as cannon fodder last week. Kiev had hoped to trigger a massacre. But the young troops knew they were being used as tiger bait and many surrendered.

The initial reaction from Russia has been swift as expected. Putin stated, “If the Kiev regime started military actions against the country’s population, this is without doubt a very serious crime,”… “a serious violation of the Geneva agreements.”

There were signs yesterday that the Russians, with very good interception capabilities, knew of today’s planned actions. They once again asked for the de-escalation agreements of the Geneva meeting to begin with a show of good faith by Kiev.

“The Russian side once again insists on the immediate de-escalation of the situation in Ukraine’s southeast, the pullback of units of the Ukrainian army and the start of a genuine internal Ukrainian dialogue involving all of the country’s regions and political formations,” the foreign ministry said.

Later in the day we saw stage two deployed, a serious warning following the above request. Lavrov finally came out with Russia’s red line, that a military attack against Russians in East Ukraine would be considered an attack on the Russian Federation. That was not a slip of the tongue I can assure you, but something they have been prepared to say at the right time. This is not a threat, which the West seems to over rely on using so much, but a clear reaction to aggression from Kiev.

My editorial position throughout the Ukraine crisis has been that the West would feel it could claim the Russians were the aggressors simply by stating it over and over. After all, they have corporate media at their beck and call on propaganda needs. The Russians on the other hand have consistently played it cool with no threats, and giving the West lots of time to wrap the rope around its neck. Very early in the game, alternative media, which is quickly becoming the new mainstream media, had picked up on whom the good and bad guys were.

Everybody could smell that the US and NATO were trying to bait the Russians coming in early, which would then validate their “invasion” scenario. We see it is Kiev and US doing the invading, and what is worse, doing it right after they had signed a de-escalation agreement.

The West has doubled down with a repeat Maidan scenario. There they brokered a psyops compromise between the Yanukovych government and his opposition, which we know now they fully planned to break. As tensions eased, they unleashed their Right Sector terror proxies with the sniper killings which collapsed the former government. Now, in what can only be called diplomatic treachery, Kerry has stained his legacy by pulling the same tactic in Geneva talks last week.

We learn this morning that Ukraine has deployed, effectively, a division of its top forces. From ITAR-TASS, we learn the order of battle for the 11,000 troops engaged.

“‘The soldiers are armed with automatic weapons. The operation also involves some 160 tanks, over 230 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, at least 150 guns and mortars, and a great number of aircraft,’ Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said before a board meeting of the Defense Ministry.”

The Russians have not been sitting on their behinds, nor would anyone else having a major foreign power operating on its border via a violent coup-government in charge of its military forces. If the situation were reversed, the Russians doing something similar in Canada, the US military would be preparing a list of military options.

Of course this move by Ukraine had the full support of the US. For whatever the reasons, the White house has decided it wants escalation, not de-escalation. They knew that initiating combined military operations in East Ukraine, despite the violence level there having been less than a half day with the Maidan Square fighting, would force Russia to respond.

Obama is literally calling Putin out into the street now… a move that none of us see any justification for other than as part of a planned major Geo-political shift that it wants to trigger with military action.
Donetsk region protestors are reporting in local media, “An all-arms operation has been launched in Sloviansk. This means just one thing — a civil war.” A full mobilization has been called for.

Putin has continued his measured response, calling today’s actions a “punitive operation,” moving up to the red line but not over it… yet. He has also used Kiev’s current aggression in the face of the Geneva agreement to de-escalate, as validation for Russian moves in protecting Crimea from a similar fate. I agree. The US has thrown away even the veil of illegality they had been endlessly claiming over that operation, despite 97% local public approval.

We can see now that Kerry and NATO were calling for the Russians to move back from their OWN border when this current Kiev-Kerry-Hagel and Brennan operation was in the planning stages. Such breaches of good faith would have broken off many past negotiations between great powers.

What we are watching here is the EU and the US, primarily, digging a diplomatic grave for themselves through their double-dealing that even a rookie Intel analyst could confirm with a half day of open source Intel work.

The head of the violent nationalist Right Sector, Dimitry Yarosh, has moved his headquarters into East Ukraine, a huge psychological provocation, as he has been screaming for war against the East. Plan to see them doing the nasty pre-election stuff that the Army does not want to dirty its hands doing.

The Ukraine Army has also deployed to the Russian border. Expect to see the usual manufactured provocation acts there, the best that America’s shadow government people can come up with. The Russians will be going into full pre-invasion and defense preparation.

When Kiev steps over the red line, expect to see initial air attacks against Ukrainian armor units, and the deployment of air defense units to the major cities with support. They have to do this to deny Kiev the air mobility it has had. I will say it first here… we could see a “no-fly zone” imposed on a western proxy as a result of this Western foolishness.

That will put us in a hair-trigger situation for a major shooting confrontation. But the big question there is what does the US and NATO really want? Has that been the plan all along? And will the Aegis destroyers be used to challenge it, plus the NATO air force reinforcements to the Baltic states? The match has been lit folks… and by the democratic and freedom-loving West. You just can’t make this stuff up.

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