In a new report, Societe Generale argues that we’re at the end of a cycle that began in 1980. The note is titled grandly: “A new world order, When demand overtakes supply.”
At the end of the 1970s the industrialized world went looking for cheap labor and found it in Asia.
But now the boom in Asia is affecting the entire globe in ways that will bring new resource stresses.
Among the points the firm makes:
- From 1980-2010 the global population grew by 2.5 billion (mostly 15-64 year olds)
- 2/3rds of those 15-64 year-olds came from Asia (excluding Japan)- that’s a huge shift in the labor market and demand.
- The industrialized world’s labor force is set for a 5% decrease by 2030 – so lower productivity, and again more stresses.
Add it all up: lots more demand, and not necessarily as much supply. The shift between cycles will be “chaotic and long winded,” says Societe.
THEN: A global workforce of about 2 billion.
NOW: A global workforce of over 4 billion, mostly from Asia (without Japan).
THEN: 1 billion people made up 3/4ths of global consumption.
Image: Jalopnik
NOW: Major consumption in emerging markets.
THEN: Natural resources were plentiful.
Image: ap
NOW: Resources will be scarce.
Image: Wikimedia Commons
Then: Commodity prices were low.
Now: Commodity prices rise.
Then: Appetite for risky assets, disinflation, market stability.
Now: Low appetite for risk, inflation, short volatile market cycles.
Then: Limited government intervention in the economy.
Now: Government intervention in the economy- protectionism.
But this may not be the end of the world for three reasons.
- Asia and Africa will be loaded with development opportunities.
- Circumstances will force desperately needed innovation in energy and technology sectors.
- The changes in the emerging world, and oncoming inflation, are the only thing that can save the industrialized world from economic stagnation.
A comment to Bitcoin Uncensored Blog.
” A Paradigm Shift “. This is the most suitable definition for what is actually going on in the “global village”.
But I have something to say about the fact that Bitcoin is a paradigm itself.
For those who are not familiar with the word Paradigm:
A Paradigm is a pattern or model, and if it is later discarded and a different pattern or
model replaces it, we call this process a “paradigm shift.” An example of this is
the Ptolemaic system of the universe in which the earth is at the center of the solar
system, which was replaced by the heliocentric system of Copernicus.
Let’s make it more simple.
There is something established that we take for granted. We keep on using it every day. By time we realize that there are some anomalies. If we stop thinking and we analyze these anomalies, we would eventually come to the conclusion that what was taken for granted is wrong and that there is a different way of doing.
The actual “shift” happens when the majority of the people agrees on the new way of doing which of course needs to be demonstrated to be true and workable.
It is worth noticing that The Ptolemaic paradigm of the universe was not replaced so much
by the fact that it was wrong but by the fact that anomalies observed eventually caused the entire paradigm to shift to a new one. A new pattern or model.
Therefore, the way financial transactions are carried out today is our Pattern and observations shows that there are anomalies. But this does not means that the old pattern is wrong at all!! It simply means that nowadays (and only nowadays ), transactions can be done in a different and more efficient way. Thus, we have the paradigm shift.
Bitcoin being merely a tool that might implement the shift.
It is my opinion that the shift might occur but not in the near future and that Bitcoin “economy” needs several adjustments before it could become a catalyst in this contest.
Signed: Twitter @Michele1940
It’s obvious that the one world eugenic masters are using the power of money not guns to rule the world, will they succeed? Their success solely depends upon the people buying off on their tyrannical agenda and bowing down to their master. Painful sacrifices will be expected, but the gain is priceless to anyone who desires to keep their liberties and freedoms.
Exellent post!