Trend Alert: Revolutionary Fervor to Spread Beyond Arab States; Europe Next


Gerald Celente

KINGSTON, NY, 1 February 2011 – When the Tunisian government toppled, the mass media and their stable of experts ­ who were blindsided by these events ­ quickly stepped in to proclaim the obvious: that citizens of other Arab nations would be emboldened to challenge autocratic and corrupt governments.

Now Egypt is in the throes of insurrection, and Algeria, Jordan, Morocco and Yemen are already targeted for revolutionary change. The richer and more tightly controlled Kingdoms of the Middle East will not be immune to challenges from their citizenry to break the chains of royal rule.

But, as I had forecast in the Trends Journal, it is not solely the Middle East that is destined to experience episodes of violent upheaval. What is transpiring in the Arab world will spread throughout many European states. While the call to arms will be spoken in different tongues, the underlying causes will be the same.

In December 2010 (before Tunisia made the headlines) we issued a Trend Alert® titled, “Off With Their Heads!” in which we predicted a “long war between the people and the ruling classes.” We noted that, “Anyone questioning the intensity of the people’s seething anger is either out of touch or in denial.”

It wasn’t Arab anger that led us to that forecast ­ it was the student and worker revolts spilling into the streets of Europe. The imposition of draconian austerity measures ­ higher taxes, tuition hikes, lost benefits, curtailed services, public sector job cuts ­ had young and old raging against a rigged system that paved the way for the privileged and punished the proles.

Though millions marched through the streets of Athens, Brussels, Dublin, Lisbon, London and Madrid, when the protests ended, the governments were barely shaken, let alone toppled. Unlike the autocratic Arab regimes, where the tight grip of repression could only be broken by violence, in the “democratic” West the illusion of representation and placating government promises mitigated the violence.

Both the press and politicians assumed the protests would run their course, people would accept their fate, and, like it or not, suffer the consequences. The protests, however, have not run their course. The economic toll of austerity and unemployment continues to ravage the lower and middle classes. As we wrote in the Winter 2011 Trends Journal, “It will only be a matter of time before a series of final straw events breaks the public’s back, setting off uncontrollable uprisings, coups (bloodless and/or military), riots and revolts throughout the financially battered world.”

Trend Forecast: The unintended consequences of the regime changes in North Africa and the Middle East, and the uprisings we forecast that will roil Europe will be as fully dramatic as their intended consequences: the overthrow of governments. The calls by Presidents, Prime Ministers, cabinet officials and foreign policy experts for “orderly transition of power” are nothing more than diplomatic doublespeak and pure windbaggery. There is no such thing as a clean and simple revolution.

As we will see in Egypt, military coups will be disguised as regime changes. Already the public is being conditioned to view the Egyptian military as beloved liberators. But in fact they are simply another arm of the autocratic government, no more familiar with democratic ideals than the dictator they replace … who had himself been drawn from the ranks of the military.

The world leaders and world media are not recognizing the Egyptian uprising for what it is: a prelude to a series of civil wars that will lead to regional wars, that will lead to the first “Great War” of the 21st century. (See “The History of The Future: Trends 2012: The Great War,” Trends Journal, Spring 2010)

To schedule an interview with Gerald Celente, Trends Journal publisher, please contact: Zeke West, Media Relations, 845 331.3500 ext. 1

©MMXI The Trends Research Institute®

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6 Responses

  1. Robert2534 says:

    I generally agree with most of Celente’s observations but I am concerned he may be in error as regards the depth of the cultural maladies that may set-off wide spread revolutionary occurrences.

    The impetus for the French and Russian revolutions evolved from wide-spread unemployment, hunger, inflation and the congealing cultural notion that revolution was essential to guarantee an idealized, though uncertain, outcome. Remember that these revolutions occurred only after both populations grew intolerant of long-term, repetitive maladies and afflictions.

    More critical to both revolutions, however, was the formalized presence of fairly well-defined options. In Russia the Mensheviks and Bolsheviks provided the pathway for unified expression of cultural discontent; in France, the Jocobins and other formalized groups gave direction to the ‘oppressed masses’.

    I question whether or not the level of discontent is sufficient at this time to drive Europe into a frenzied state. The Muslim population is ideologically aligned but the remainder of the populations are broken into numerous, separate and ideologically distinct factions. Mutual discord appears to be making advances and Europe’s culture has sufficiently eroded to the extent any efforts to stay violent revolutions by ‘loyalists’ is unlikely – I am reminded that culture must die, or sufficiently erode, before the collapse of the state is likely. Even with many adverse conditions working in opposition to revolution, or the collapse of governments, we must be reminded that matters can and often do change too rapidly to predict.

    So, I caution my comments with the notation that Celente’s observations regarding cultural maladies – observations which are uniquely his own – are on point and represent the greatest danger to the collapse of any nation.

    Which brings me to the USA – We are not immune. American cultural values have eroded to the extent our culture is now dependent upon government for definition. As one affliction after another – real or imagined – riles the nerves of the ‘oppressed masses’, the end-effect can only be a unification of discontent. With a little ‘tweaking’, and the continued rehashing of ‘old wounds’ enjoined with new grievances, it seems highly likely we will experience the beginnings of our own revolution this coming summer in the form of asymmetrical riots, union strikes and other ambitious enterprises designed to destabilize then nullify our current government. We should not dwell too heavily on Europe’s future as our own does not bode well. 2012 may well be an ignitable year that will formalize then foment violent expression of long-held, well-defined grievances of our own ‘oppressed masses’.

    With a government suffering from near-mortal economic wounds one has to wonder if the process we have historically used to prevent national madness, appeasement, will continue to be possible. We have purchased cultural peace at great expense. With the addition of millions of aggrieved immigrants it seems doubtful we will be able to purchase our way out of the cultural nightmare we have both tolerated and nurtured.

  2. Abaddon says:

    This is what I like about Gerald Celente, he does not seek to make excuses for mans behaviour, but is blunt, forthright, honest, tells it as it is, and points us to the abyss into which we are all headed. He does not deceive with some new form of political format that will solve mans problems, but foretells much worse to come, which is in keeping with the reality of what we can see happening everywhere across the world. We all know what is happening in our own countries, towns and cities, no nation is exempt from the enormity of the problems that is now confronting the global community, no nation can now be an island, immune from the world, for we are all on the one planet. What nation is free from pollution, or crime, or unrest, or financial woes, what nation does not have police and security forces to protect its interests so as to maintain stability and protect itself from enemies within and enemies without?
    Like a cancer, the breakdown of nations has begun to spread throughout the globe, the political medications are not working, the global patient is going into cardiac arrest, more money is being injected into the patient, with only a flickering of the eyes in response, the rest of the body is motionless. The patient is surrounded by the best that the establishment can produce, the IMF, the UN, the EU, Presidential consultants and Primeministers, to no avail. Blood is now pouring from every orifice, with convulsions and body trauma taking control over all else, they all stand back, helpless, impotent, as forces beyond their control have now taken over their global prodigy.
    What they cannot see is the very thing that killed their global ideal, is coming for them to.

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