Giving India trade route or crossing red lines?


  By Farzana Shah | Asian Tribune

In a country affected by low intensity conflicts, economic mismanagement and political corruption at all levels, constituting a foreign policy which can protect its security interests is really a cumbersome job but even then there are some red lines which nations draw and are not meant to be crossed at any cost.

These red lines are drawn at all fronts; be it political, economical or strategic front. It seems that replenish US policies towards establishing Indian hegemony in South Asia are in full swing thanks to another US supported government in Islamabad. Present government just like previous one, is more willing to cross red lines just to protect artificial democracy in Pakistan.


On May 6th 2009 Pakistani and Afghan ministers signed a MoU in US to give India a transit facility for trade with Afghanistan through Pakistan.

According to understanding between Afghanistan and Pakistan by end of 2009 Pakistan, will surrender its 43 years’ old stance on not allowing India to use its soil for trade with Afghanistan till the resolution of all outstanding issues including Kashmir.

Although foreign office in Islamabad rejected media reports that India will get all benefits from this agreement. But US secretary of state Hillary Clinton was jubilant over signing of this “landmark” memorandum of understanding.

The statement “India will get trade route” coming from a top US official is something to be believed more than what the Pakistani foreign office says.

Under the second clause of the agreement not only Afghanistan could get access to the sea route; it could also find new avenues to India and China for similar purposes.

The clause titled “Objectives of Pak Afghan Transit Agreement” elaborates that the agreement emphasizes easiest routes for international traffic (also including access to a third country).

It also emphasizes the need for establishing a transit corridor connecting Pakistan’s border areas with Afghanistan, and to give the two countries access to each other’s neighbouring countries. Among these countries include India, China (through Pakistan).

This clearly shows that Pakistani government is trying to sell another lie to its public.

Why US is eager to have India in Afghanistan through Pakistan? This is something which needs to be understood by high echelons of security managers in Pakistan.

The MoU if materialised would be a bigger favour to India by USA than nuclear deal between Washington and New Dehli.

India had been trying its level best in the past to get this transit route through Pakistan which will easily give her a license to expand its footprints from Myanmar in the East to Afghanistan in the West. Pakistan will be deprived of all its security and economic interests in the region.

Allowing transit route to India has some grave implications for Pakistan ranging from security issues to economic ones

1. Benefiting India at own cost

Pakistan and India both have long and outstanding issues. India never misses any chance when it comes to harming Pakistani interests.

Giving India transit route amid concerns about Indian involvement in Balochistan and FATA is going to be disastrous for Pakistan.

The accord will allow India to use Pakistan as a road to benefit Indian economy resultantly contributing towards its military buildup and intelligence network against Pakistan.

Once gates are opened it would be difficult for Pakistan to distinguish between traders and Indian intelligence and military personnel. Keeping situation in NWFP in view, this route can turn into a dangerous trap against Pakistan.

Trucks loaded with RAW operatives, Indian military personnel or weapons pretending as trade convoys can proved to be new aid route to Indian-backed insurgents in Pakistan.

So Islamabad must take all these matters into consideration before signing any agreement specially allowing transit route which is a step forward to ease up Indians more on its Western borders.

2. Undermining Gwadar, Pak-China interests

Pakistan and China have invested heavily in Gwadar mainly for using it as a trade hub between countries in Central Asia, China, Russia and rest of the world.

Allowing India transit through Pakistan may end up in allowing all Central Asian countries and Russia to sign deals with Afghanistan and India for using Indian ports instead of Gwadar for trade with Far East, Australia and Japan as Indian ports are closer to these counties than Gwadar.

China and Pakistan both have strategic and economic interests in Gwadar which would be greatly harmed in case India is allowed transit route as road link will enable India to support its assets (BLA) in Baluchistan more aggressively.

BLA whose leadership currently is said to be based in Afghanistan, in the past has deliberately tried to harm Pak-China relations. BLA has been involved in kidnapping and killing Chinese engineers working in Pakistan.

The terrorist outfit Blaochistan Liberation Army killed three Chinese engineers in Hub area of Balochistan in 2006.

In May 2004, three Chinese port workers were killed in a similar attack at Gwadar by BLA. The growing influence and support by India would definitely encourage BLA to keep Chinese away from any project in Baluchistan.

We need to understand the geo-political game being played by internal as well as external players to exploit the grievances of our Baluch brothers.

The Chinese investment in Baluchistan along with better governance by Pakistan can turn misled youth of Baluchistan in favor of a strong united Pakistan. US made many promises for development in Pakistan, but never acted on them. Establishing ROZ (Reconstruction Opportunity Zones) can be taken as benchmark in this context. These were promised some 5 years back but still bill of establishing these zones is pending with US congress. On the other hand China began work on Gwadar in 2002 and in 2006 first phase was completed and the port became operational in early 2009.

3. Pakistani industry to suffer

Although Pakistan has smaller share in trade with Afghanistan, but still its traders have their presence in Afghan market. Currently 90 per cent goods ranging from food to construction material are being supplied by Pakistani traders. By allowing Indian supplies to Afghan market through Pakistan, will reduce cost of Indian goods in Afghanistan boosting these supplies further. Currently India cannot access Afghanistan through roads so cost of Pakistani goods is somehow competitive to Indian goods but after the transit route opened Pakistan will completely lose Afghan market.

Cost of production in Pakistan is considerably high compared to Indian products primarily due to utter inept behavior of current and previous governments towards producing cheap electricity in the country. Allowing Indian industry to keep its foot on Pakistani market will simply kill our local industry. In quality Pakistani products are still better but Indians in the past have been selling Pakistani products including rice with Indian stamps on bags to international market. There is no guarantee that Indian will not repeat the same in Afghanistan where there is a pro-India government in place.

4. Water Disputes

Although water dispute seems to be an isolated matter in context of transit trade between India and Afghanistan through Pakistan but it indirectly can turn into a bigger problem as India is persuading Afghanistan to build dams on Kabul River which contribute to Indus River in Pakistan and India itself has plan to build multiple dams in Kashmir on Indus River. So, Pakistan must not allow India to shift its engineers and machinery to Afghanistan through its soil to build dams on Kabul River. It will intensify water crisis in Pakistan.

Water dispute erupted between Pakistan and India recently can be taken as bench mark to foresee all future agreements in region with regards to interests of the both the countries.

Taking maximum advantage of unilateral ceasefire at LoC, India completed and started major dams in held Kashmir on Chenab River. Despite the mediation by World Bank, design of the Baghliar dam was not changed and India did stop flow of river when Pakistani farmers were about to sow crops.

With blockage of Kabul River water, Pakistan will become barren sooner than feared.

5. Forcing Pakistan Army to police Indian goods

This is the biggest reason militarily why Pakistan must not allow Indian trucks rolling through its soil. Any attack on Indian conveys inside Pakistan will provide an excuse to Indians for demanding Pakistan military to police these conveys all the way to Khyber Pass.

More disturbingly is if any such attack happens, which is very likely in presence of Jihadi outfits in Pakistan, international and Indian media will start a new wave of propaganda against Pakistan being a failed state. By this vertex this MoU seems to be a step towards US plans to turn Pakistani military into a mere police force.

6. Kashmir Issue

Allowing India trade route has always been linked with solution to Kashmir issues by the Pakistani policy makers since last many decades.

The sudden U-turn by current government not only surprised Pakistanis but it will send a very disturbing message to Kashmiris as well.

The decision is as damaging to Pakistani interests as was Musharraf’s decision to announce ceasefire at LoC which allowed Indians to fence LoC and declaring it International border between Pakistan and India which sent a wrong signal that Pakistan was surrendering its stance on Kashmir.

6. Economic interest can’t override security interest

Most vocal argument made in favour of this MoU by some business circles in Pakistan, is that Pakistan will be charging transit fee from India and Afghanistan amounting to some $20 million per year.

Currently Pakistan is facing much bigger security challenges than economic ones.

If friends of Pakistan has announced $5.28 billion and US to give Pakistan $7.5 billion in next five years apart from $2.8 billion as military aid then why Pakistan is seeking these $20 million per year so eagerly at this point? In current situation no economic interest can be bigger than Pakistan’s own existence which is at risk.

Final thoughts

The leadership crisis which had emerged during Musharraf regime still continues in Pakistan. Mass corruption and dictatorial attitude of previous government allowed laws like NRO which allowed direct US meddling in Pakistani affairs. Giving unilateral concessions to Indians is something initiated during military dictatorship in the last 8 years and what we are witnessing now is just an extension of decision taken by previous US supported government.

Past track record of India’s reactions to unilateral concessions by Pakistan speaks volumes for possible outcome of another big strategic concession to India.

When will Pakistan realise that there is a red line and crossing that line will put the entire nation’s existence at stake. Leadership crisis in Pakistan after US meddling in our politics is increasing by every minute.

Is there a leader who can save national interest with some national zeal? Are we ever going to see an independent foreign policy?

Also See:

Haqqani Pushed India Transit Idea On Behalf Of Washington

Zardari Is Kind, India Should Ask Him To Hand Over Kashmir, Hunza & Gilgit Too

ALERT: Indians Fighting In Swat – WARNING: Disturbing Pictures

Confirmed: Pakistani Taliban Using Indian/US Weapons

Indian RAW funded Swat terrorists:$650 million to destabilize Pakistan

India is supporting Taliban against Pakistan says US intelligence official

Report:India is trying to separate Balochistan from Pakistan

Pakistan: Malik blames Brahmdagh, India for Balochistan conditions

The Destabilization of Pakistan: Finding Clarity in the Baluchistan Conundrum

RAW Facts on South Asia- India Fails to Occupy Countries

RAW Network In Afghanistan Destabilizing Pakistan

Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) Terrorism- Global Security Intel Report

Victims of India

India: Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) Terrorism

Sri Lanka Defeated Indian RAW Game Plan

RAW On The Mission Of Obliterating Regional Peace

US Report: Direct RAW Involvement In East Pakistan Secession

India: Exporting Terrorism In The Name Of Largest Democracy

RAW: An Instrument of Indian Imperialism

Pakistan and China versus Mossad, CIA, RAW and MI6

11 Responses

  1. hindblogger says:

    @Rafay Kashmiri
    Lets not make this place a forum for accusations which does not outproduce anything for anyone.

    If I try to explain every word- it will be big post, meaning nothing. What I am saying is so simple- If everything you said is correct- then why PAK army is sitting silent ? They should takeover the command from Mr. 10 % !
    But we do not see this happening- why ?

    My second issue is that PAKISTAN and INDIA are puppets- in hands of USA / CHINA likes. Rest seems to be whole drama- because if PAK is angry, being targeted by India , the way you mentioned in your post then why don’t you close the consulates, stop roads of trade, stop bus and train !!

    When there are so tense relationships between two countries- why they are having buses and trains running ? Trade being done and consulates working ???

    I do not want to make an attempt to ‘advocate’ anything but just see what I am saying !!

  2. Rafay Kashmiri says:


    again you are absolutely wrong,
    Indians & Americans /Israelis are spreading
    terrorism, Patriotic Talibans are logically justified to retaliate against any aggression from any of them,
    that goes for French as well, if they find themselves in the same ” Hammam “.

    You claim not knowing the truth !! surprisingly
    shocking. atleast you know that 900.000
    Indian Army in Kashmir is busy with the worst
    Genocide ??
    Indo/Israelis have 21 Indian consulates inside Afghan cities & villages, training, financing, equipping and sending them into Fata & NWFP
    inside Pakistan to comit only terrorist attacks. Indian currency & arms are very
    common evidences, terrorists caught or killed
    have physical proves that they were not muslims
    and Pakistanis. Baitullah Mehsood, Fazlullah, and sufi, the terrorist leaders have received trainings, arms, currencies and US / Indian protection.
    You are so right ! Pakistani Army and ISI have been mobilized, for your info, UN or not,
    3rd degree Jihaad against Indo/Israeli and US
    aggression, is in rigour !!!
    Now you know the truth, hindblogger !!

  3. Rafay Kashmiri says:


    All Pakistan Govts. tough for Indians were good Govts. !!
    Indians Prefer Pakistanis traitors, who believe in
    Indian secularism and Chanakya and
    Indian nazism !!
    Peoples who allow their Govts and religion to kill & perpetrate Genocides on minorities :
    Dalits, Christians, Muslims, Bhuddists, Nexalites,
    Assamis, Nagas,Bengalies,
    People who should be thinking about me are, certainly not dreamers or Brahman Nazi Racist!
    United State’s Dravidians ( USDs).
    Politicians who allow their electors to be bombarded are traitors and foriegn agents !they are 98% Indian agents.
    Indian Chromosomes are Pakistan’s biggest
    problem, there is no doubt ! Everybody has 10%,
    somewhere they even have 80%, India is big, crimes are collosal !! see.
    ” Aids ” proportion is highiest in some people’s culture, where prostitution is part of their tourism Industry !! e.g India ! aids can also pour in, as
    International Charities of 230 millions US$ last
    year, aid can also be in the shape of selling 200.000 Indian kids disguised as ” adoption” ,

    You are absolutely wrong about Gen. Mushy,
    I think Jamiat-e-Ulama-hind would be absolutely
    ideal to promote democracy in India, instead of
    all Indian secular Political thugs
    ” riggingly elected “. Hope you will correct things
    at your end , Sir.

  4. hindblogger says:

    @Rafay Kashmiri

    If India is doing as you said in Afghanistan- then I have two points.

    1. It is better TO BE rather than NOT TO BE. Had this work been done by French- then you might not have mind this way.

    2. I do not know the truth- about India providing equipment to someon to fight in PAK but even if it truth- I do not think that PAK army is just sitting there and watching. I do not think that by now we do not see any drama on PAK/INDIA or other channels. it is not that easy to walk in some country and start enrolling people to fight in third country….without leaving a trace. PAK might be standing on doors of UN [ If not on USA ] with all that evidence.

  5. hindblogger says:

    @Rafay Kashmiri

    May I know which Govt. you remember was good for PAK ?
    Perhaps they are not traitors – people who should be thinking about you are dreaming USD’s .
    People who allow others to bombard their own country ?
    People who are know as ‘best negotiators’ with 10% commission ?
    People who always played with emotions with hate waves- getting nothing in turn except ‘aids’.

    I think Gen. Mush was better than fake democracy. Let me know if I am wrong- I can be .

  6. Rafay Kashmiri says:

    I like the remarks on the photo !
    what a bunch of thugs sitting together
    distributing the loot, bloody hord of Holy
    Pirates alliance !!

  7. Rafay Kashmiri says:

    Very thought provoking solid points you have there
    Farzana Shah, well done !!

  8. Rafay Kashmiri says:

    what about Afghan highway to chabahar invested
    by Indian Army !!
    and 21 Indo / Israeli consulates training, financing, equipping all terrorists and sending to Pakistan ?
    Indian investments in 4 new 5 star Hotels,
    3 brand new airlines,
    4 new bordelic TV channels
    8 new Missionnary Evangelist schools

  9. Rafay Kashmiri says:

    PPP’s failed Govt. and Zardari be impeached !
    NOW !!!! we must not wait for Obama’s flight
    back to states.
    its a traitor Govt. and has Indian agenda,
    hindblogger forgot to tell you, Farzana

  10. hindblogger says:

    “When will Pakistan realise that there is a red line and crossing that line will put the entire nation’s existence at stake. Leadership crisis in Pakistan after US meddling in our politics is increasing by every minute.”

    Dear Fazana and all readers !

    Either we are good hypocrite or we are born fools. Fazana ! don’t you see that USA was always involved in affairs of both countries. Now goose if out and whole world knows how PAK and IND are puppets of USA. PAK was smart- managed to gather money – although you and me knows how much will be coming in PAK and how much goes in swiss banks.

    PAK was always under leadership crisis and this situation will remain so…[ I am sorry ] unless and untill

    1. Army role is limited.
    2. Regionalism, hard liners are tackled with.
    3. Blood will remain blood- India and Pak can not survive with hate. Coming generations will find some better solution- as compared to old and sick people sitting in delhi and islamabad. Right now both are making us all fools and doing time pass.

    Right now PAK has no option – has to play game of BLANK CHEQUE and till date it is getting cashed but I am feeling sorry for is for COMMON MAN. Poor are becoming more poorer and elite are being promoted to swiss bank A/C

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